It's a real pleasure to see the McCain campaign surging, and to see the Senator consistently talking like a conservative. He's said enough about the issues that matter - judges, border security, taxes, etc. - that conservatives feel they can hold him accountable if he strays from promises. And the environmental issues are likely to disappear - they are being overshadowed, and a consensus is starting to build that the Earth is entering a cooling period, and that we can do little about climate change in any event, absent complete cooperation from burgeoning China and India. McCain can point to economic uncertainty and the real lack of significant consensus on climate change as reasons to put off action in favor of further study.
None of us doubt that America will always be first in McCain's heart, and his desire to see government contained appears to be real, as does his zest for new energy production. In short, even without Palin, McCain is looking like the kind of candidate we could have stomached in any case. Had he picked Romney, given the current meltdown in the credit markets, conservatives would have found other reasons to be energized. Outside the party, there is another source of energy that ought to make the party react like it's been slapped - Obama's apparent Marxist leanings and racialist thinking.

But with Sarah Palin in tow, McCain's swelling campaign has become a tidal wave. In addition to the party loving her, she connects with normal people, and contrasts sharply in nearly every regard to the charlatans on the other side.  Mrs. Palin appears to be so fundamentally decent that she serves as something of a sanity check: If you find yourself hating this woman, there is good reason to believe that you suffer from some kind of mental illness. You may find yourself surrounded with people who agree with you, who likewise hate her. They, too, are likely suffering from mental illness.
Consider: Biden is a foreign policy 'expert' who voted for the war, against the surge, and wanted to break Iraq into three permanently warring pieces. He opposes missile defense, going back to the beginning. He's scary on foreign policy, and a giant liberal on other issues. He's got lots of experience sitting in the senate, but very little experience making sound decisions there. He would make a lousy VP or President. But we don't hate him. I haven't heard a hateful word spoken about him on talk radio, and I listen to about 10 hours/day. In contrast, many on the left have a pulsing, visceral hatred for Sarah Palin. They want to see her destroyed and humiliated. Those people should seek therapy. Har har - No, I'm not kidding. If the idea of Sarah Palin fills your heart with anger and hatred, you are in need of help.

Back to luck. Yes, Palin represents an incredible bit of luck for the GOP. The energy issue likely killed Obama before Palin even came along. That, her, his gaffes, and his increasingly shrill and strident approach have cooked him for good. But it took Palin - a stroke of luck, exactly the right person at the right time and in the right context - to drive the nails into the coffin. With any further luck and good fortune, President McCain and VP Palin will actually do something significant and improve the brand of the GOP. If they can't, we're probably cooked. This is the third election in a row in which we got lucky.

In 2000, had Gore not shown himself in the debates to be an insufferable blowhard, he'd probably have won. Had he not insisted on a selective recount, he'd have lost with great honor and probably won in 2004. Had the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth not come along with their book, showing what a phony preening jackass John Kerry is, and had he not been such a flaming liberal, Kerry would have won. The Democrats have yet to nominate a moderate. The GOP has yet to craft a message that is widely appealing to Hispanics. If they ever do, leftists will form a human chain on the border to keep any more of them out. As things stand, our demographic advantages are diminishing. It's true that conservatives breed more than liberals, but their kids then get run through the leftist-dominated culture and consciousness-forming institutions.

In short, our luck will run out some day unless something fundamental changes. Perhaps the conservative/reform branding by McCain/Palin will stick. Something has to change, we can't count on luck forever.

TOTA

(End the debate, Senator Kerry - show us your scars.)