It's a real pleasure to see the McCain campaign surging, and to see the Senator consistently talking like a conservative. He's said enough about the issues that matter - judges, border security, taxes, etc. - that conservatives feel they can hold him accountable if he strays from promises. And the environmental issues are likely to disappear - they are being overshadowed, and a consensus is starting to build that the Earth is entering a cooling period, and that we can do little about climate change in any event, absent complete cooperation from burgeoning China and India. McCain can point to economic uncertainty and the real lack of significant consensus on climate change as reasons to put off action in favor of further study.
None of us doubt that America will always be first in McCain's heart, and his desire to see government contained appears to be real, as does his zest for new energy production. In short, even without Palin, McCain is looking like the kind of candidate we could have stomached in any case. Had he picked Romney, given the current meltdown in the credit markets, conservatives would have found other reasons to be energized. Outside the party, there is another source of energy that ought to make the party react like it's been slapped - Obama's apparent Marxist leanings and racialist thinking.

But with Sarah Palin in tow, McCain's swelling campaign has become a tidal wave. In addition to the party loving her, she connects with normal people, and contrasts sharply in nearly every regard to the charlatans on the other side.  Mrs. Palin appears to be so fundamentally decent that she serves as something of a sanity check: If you find yourself hating this woman, there is good reason to believe that you suffer from some kind of mental illness. You may find yourself surrounded with people who agree with you, who likewise hate her. They, too, are likely suffering from mental illness.
Consider: Biden is a foreign policy 'expert' who voted for the war, against the surge, and wanted to break Iraq into three permanently warring pieces. He opposes missile defense, going back to the beginning. He's scary on foreign policy, and a giant liberal on other issues. He's got lots of experience sitting in the senate, but very little experience making sound decisions there. He would make a lousy VP or President. But we don't hate him. I haven't heard a hateful word spoken about him on talk radio, and I listen to about 10 hours/day. In contrast, many on the left have a pulsing, visceral hatred for Sarah Palin. They want to see her destroyed and humiliated. Those people should seek therapy. Har har - No, I'm not kidding. If the idea of Sarah Palin fills your heart with anger and hatred, you are in need of help.

Back to luck. Yes, Palin represents an incredible bit of luck for the GOP. The energy issue likely killed Obama before Palin even came along. That, her, his gaffes, and his increasingly shrill and strident approach have cooked him for good. But it took Palin - a stroke of luck, exactly the right person at the right time and in the right context - to drive the nails into the coffin. With any further luck and good fortune, President McCain and VP Palin will actually do something significant and improve the brand of the GOP. If they can't, we're probably cooked. This is the third election in a row in which we got lucky.

In 2000, had Gore not shown himself in the debates to be an insufferable blowhard, he'd probably have won. Had he not insisted on a selective recount, he'd have lost with great honor and probably won in 2004. Had the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth not come along with their book, showing what a phony preening jackass John Kerry is, and had he not been such a flaming liberal, Kerry would have won. The Democrats have yet to nominate a moderate. The GOP has yet to craft a message that is widely appealing to Hispanics. If they ever do, leftists will form a human chain on the border to keep any more of them out. As things stand, our demographic advantages are diminishing. It's true that conservatives breed more than liberals, but their kids then get run through the leftist-dominated culture and consciousness-forming institutions.

In short, our luck will run out some day unless something fundamental changes. Perhaps the conservative/reform branding by McCain/Palin will stick. Something has to change, we can't count on luck forever.

TOTA

(End the debate, Senator Kerry - show us your scars.)

I believe everyone has long been mis-reading the public's sentiment. People don't want change. They want normalcy. They want stability. They are sick and tired of feeling like they don't have very much control over the future. Recent developments in the commodities and credit markets are more of the same, generating more consumer anxiety and uncertainty. The average American no longer wakes up most days with the conviction that life will be largely the same next month as it was last month; some new grim revelation seems always to be lurking.

Consider the challenges that have settled in since 2000: 9/11, war, the continuing threat of terrorism, North Korean and Iranian nukes, payday loan centers on every other corner, outsourcing, rising health care costs, de-industrialization, illegal immigration, Islamic radicalism, exotic diseases, gay marriage, the world's animus toward America, energy prices, currency devaluation, the ascendancy of amoral China, the home loan crisis, disintegrating credit markets, etc. On top of these new concerns there still persists record and growing consumer debt, massive national debt, a zero savings rate, and looming national financial insolvency due to entitlement commitments. These concerns, along with a slew of others, have people feeling insecure and uncertain about the future. The media stokes this uncertainly relentlessly because they are largely leftists, and they want radical change.

Even the well-off ought to be concerned. Some of these problems are existential problems; we will have to deal with them to survive as a relatively free people. And the ongoing general uncertainty can throw open the doors to a demagogue like O'Bama!, who would seek to radically change virtually every aspect of society, using the public's anxiety as an excuse for action on all fronts, with government at the center of everything.  No evidence exists that growing the government is the solution to any of these problems, but that doesn't matter to O'Bama!; growing the government is his philosophy, every problem simply serves as an excuse. It's irrelevant to him that virtually every other country in the first world is looking to go in the other direction - looking to shrink government and promote private sector growth.

McCain must articulate the real nature of America's anxiety, and argue that this is not the time to turn the country upside down. It's time for the tried and true.
If anything, some of the problems listed above are so serious and unavoidable that they should serve to focus the government's attention where it will do the most good - foreign relations, war, disease prevention, emergency response, terrorism, certain macroeconomic issues, and border security. The free market can provide much better solutions to many ongoing problems, such as health care, retirement security, energy, and education. Washington can't do everything, obviously, and giving it more power and money has so far failed to change that fact. This seemingly iron fact of the universe will be on brutally clear display going forward. The challenges faced by the country dwarf those it faced just a decade ago.

If the GOP can't alter this 'change' debate, they may lose the election with or without the energy issue. By November, things may look so bleak on so many fronts that people will blindly grasp at the loudest proclamation of 'real change' - even the poison O'Bama! is peddling.

TOTA

At the moment, the GOP has a virtual monopoly on the energy issue. That won't last long; reports of Democrat lawmakers returning from weekends with constituents don't bode well for the GOP. Some Democrats are getting the message. The GOP must act now if they are going to see this issue save their hides in November. Talk of likely democrat pick-ups in both houses is grossly premature, the uber-issue has yet to be addressed to the satisfaction of voters, much less resolved. This is the GOP's big chance, if they have their wits about them they will seize it.

Specifically, an election contract should be drawn up, in short order. Everyone knows what we need to do, so let's codify it, and put it in front of the voters in a way that can't be ignored. Spend most of the GOP money in the bank advertising it, promote it on TV, radio, and the web. Have legislators and candidates, including McCain, sign it, so that voters know that the legislators who sign this contract are committed to actually doing something about energy prices, while those who have not are committed to dreaming. Properly framed and promoted, this could be the major question in the voting booth this fall: "Which one of these candidates supports the Free America Energy Plan?"

It seems only fair to allow Democrat politicians on board, but let's get on with it already, GOP, the longer you wait, the more of them will be standing in line to clamor about how they've been for drilling all along. Their idiots at the top are all off in lala land, so let's get on with this now while a crystal clear distinction can still be made. If not, we can count on this still being a significant issue in November outside of the looniest districts, but then, the general Democrat line will be, "I had some environmental concerns, but after visiting blah blah blah, I'm convinced that we can do this in an environmentally friendly way. Of course the only way to make sure the drilling we all want happens in a 'smart' and 'responsible' way is to elect more Democrats."

GOP, if you can't recognize a gift horse when it is served up on a silver platter, you are a precursor to something; your will is no longer sufficient to carry you for long in this brave new world. If roles were reversed, and the Democrats could make hay by advocating something the vast majority of Americans actually wants, we'd be wallowing in hay. GOP: Whatever else you are doing can WAIT. This is the most important thing on the itinerarty; it is the itinerary for all intents and purposes.

Is it possible that this simple idea has not occurred to the powers that be in the GOP? Not likely. So what explains the lack of action on it? Don't bother explaining, GOP, just act. Don't tell us about legislation being drawn up in the house and senate, do this first, then propose the legislation. Can't get everyone together in a big room for long enough to hammer this out? Then put your top guys on it and have them ride herd on the rest of the GOP, and make sure every GOP challenger signs on. It's go time; the light is green.

TOTA